If you're a football fan, you have to love days like today.
This morning I awoke to temperatures around 15 degrees with flurries here in Central Wisconsin, about six hours north of Chicago. Suffice to say, it was pretty darn cold when I went for my weekend morning coffee and krueler run. It's a bit warmer down south in Chicago, about 28 right now, with flurries there as well and winds at about 15 miles per hour.
The reason I bring up the weather is because it has been such an integral part of the discussion this week, at least for one Divisional Championship game. A couple of years ago I was able to make it to a Packers-Bears game at Soldier Field. The weather was typical for December in Chicago: about 15 degrees with a wind chill near 8. We scored great seats from my friend, a Porsche mechanic, somewhere near the 50 yard line... about a dozen or so rows back. I remember the Packers won the game, but I don't think I warmed up until March. Still, the walk through the tunnel listening to the street performers banging on their drums for a couple dollars or some change, the walk down Michigan Avenue afterwards, and the intoxicating atmosphere of Soldier Field are things that I will always carry with me, no matter what the temperature outside.
The question on the minds of Windy City's Joe-meteorologists everywhere today has to be whether or not the cold weather will be enough to stop the red hot New Orleans Saints as travel to Chicago. We examine that question and more in today's NFL Divisional Championships Breakdown.
NFC Championship Game
New Orleans Saints at the Chicago Bears, 3 PM ET
Being nearly a lifelong resident of Wisconsin, except for my two year stint in Pennsylvania for grad school, it's almost painful for me to admit that I'm half-heartedly rooting for the Bears to make it to the Super Bowl, but how could you not? One of the most stories franchises in the NFL has returned to glory this season behind the strong yet inconsistent arm of Rex Grossman. Besides, it's better to root for a team within your own division, right?
Then again, how could you not love the Saints? A 3-13 season last year erased by a magical run to the Divisional Championship this year, not to mention the overhanging storyline of what this all means for the state of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans. That's the stuff Disney movies starring Mark Wahlberg are made of. Who will ultimately win the game and complete their team's story? For that, we look inside the numbers.
Inside the Numbers
As Don Banks of SI.com mentions,
"The Bears are 14-1 in the past 15 games in which Jones carries at least 20 times. Last week against Seattle, Jones ran for two touchdowns, becoming the first Bears rusher to do that in a playoff game since Walter Payton in 1979."
What's interesting about this fact is that it plays into how Lovie Smith will handle the uptempo offensive attack of the Saints. For the Bears to succeed, they will need to play a ball-control, run-first offense, one that allows the Chicago receivers like Bernard Berrian to get open deep for a play-action pass later in the game. Too many times the Bears have come out gunning the ball downfield, a game that you don't want to get into with the Saints' Drew Brees, who completed 20 of 32 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' 27-24 win over the Eagles last week.
Interestingly enough, should the Bears choose to throw deep early and often, they will be faced with a dichotomous defense that allowed only 178 yards per game in the air during the regular season, good for third best in the league, while giving up the third most passing touchdowns with 26 and the most pass plays over 40 yards. What does that tell me? The Saints pass defense can be exploited, not only deep via playaction, but also in the red zone, which could mean a big day for the Bears under-utilized Desmond Clark.
The Bears recipe for offensive success? Run the ball (the Saints gave up an average of 128 yards per game this season, and are yielding an average yard per carry around 6.1 this postseason), throw short, and let the play-action open up the deep throws downfield.
Defensively, the Bears will be faced with one of the biggest challenges they have faced all season. No team in the league has been more explosive offensively than the New Orleans Saints this year. One of the least-penalized teams in the league, New Orleans averaged a league-best 391 yards per game this regular season, and equally important, converted 44% of their third down opportunities.
Brees and Co. will be up against a heralded Bears defense that is above average in passing yards allowed but incredibly stout against the run. This season, Chicago only gave up 7 touchdowns on the ground and allowed just under 100 yards per game, with much of the thanks resting on defensive stars Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Tommy Harris. Perhaps the only unsettling stat to be found in the Bears run defense is that they've given up 13 runs of 20 or more yards, something sure to make light-footed Reggie Bush happy when he gets to a corner on an outside pitch. As Banks points out, in Chicago's "first 12 games this season, [they] held nine opponents to 17 points or fewer. In their past five games, the Bears have given up 27, 31, 21, 26 and 24 points."
An incredibly interesting matchup (if you how they battle in the trenches, and I do, having played offensive and defensive line for 10 years) will be between Saints left tackle Jamaal Brown and Bears' rookie defensive end Mark Anderson. Anderson comes into the game with 12 sacks, but whether or not he can get the corner on Brown will be one to watch.
I firmly believe The New Orleans Saints running game, not their passing game, will be a deciding factor in this game. This Bears have looked sluggish this postseason against the run, and the dynamic duo of Bush and Deuce McAllister will force the Bears to pay extra attention to how many men they have inside the box. If New Orleans is able to get their running game off the ground, then Brees will have a much easier time picking holes in the secondary. If the Bears are able to stop the run early, then watch for more passes out of the backfield and a tighter, more defensive based game. If ever the Bears missed having Tommy Harris on the line and Mike Brown in the secondary, it's this game.
With as much talk as their has been about the Bears defense this season, New Orleans' much improved defense has fallen under the radar. According to The Advertiser,
"New Orleans coach Sean Payton has gotten a lot of attention this season for designing the Saints' high-powered offense, while his defense has gone largely unnoticed. But the first moves Payton made after taking over the Saints were to beef up the defense. The first coach he hired was defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs; the first free agent he signed was linebacker Scott Fujita. Those moves have paid off, as the Saints have an underrated defense that ranked 11th in the NFL in total defense and has improved throughout the season."Led by Pro Bowl defensive end Will Smith, the Saints front four of Hollis Thomas, Charles Grant, and Brian Young are talented and quick, and could spell trouble for the Bears if the offensive line is unable to protect him.
Offense and defense aside, one of the biggest keys to victory Sunday will come from the special teams units. The Bears' Devin Hester has put together a record-breaking season and is a threat to score everytime he touches the ball, so long as he doesn't muff the return. Equally impressive has been the performance of Chicago's Pro Bowl placekicker Robbie Gould. Oddly enough, I have a feeling that Saints kicker John Carney will be called upon late in the game for a critical field goal, and could end up outshining the young Gould.
The Deciding Factor
For the Bears, Rex Grossman's performance has to be consistent for the passing game to have a chance. Despite what anyone tells you, weather will have no outcome on this game, so you can throw that advantage out the window. Need I remind you Brees played at Purdue? The offensive line has to deal with a talented group upfront, the strength of the Saints defense. Most importantly, Chicago will need a huge day from their defense and special teams, including Brian Urlacher, Briggs, and Hester.
For New Orleans, coaching and hunger will be the key. The offense needs solid play upfront from the line to give Brees adequate protection and to open up holes for Bush and McAllister. With Horn likely out, I think the Bears will square up on Bush and Colston, making the play of wideout Devery Henderson and McAllister the deciding factor.
As David Haugh writes in his article for The Chicago Tribune,
"It will come down to Bears veteran offensive tackles John Tait and Fred Miller neutralizing aggressive Saints ends Charles Grant and Will Smith...In the end, despite the cold, snowy history of Soldier Field and a career-playoff performance from Brian Urlacher, the Saints will continue their march towards destiny and come away with a win in a tight game, 27-24, with a Carney field goal as the deciding factor.
...It will come down to the Bears' young safeties challenging routes better than they have the last month and the entire defense making sure tackles on the Saints' short passes. It will come down to Cedric Benson, especially, and Thomas Jones running hard and loosening up a vulnerable New Orleans secondary for Rex Grossman...
...It will come down to Lovie Smith not letting Sean Payton outcoach him."
MP3s
Kill Hannah - "Welcome to Chicago, Motherf@$#!%"
U2/Green Day - "The Saints Are Coming"
Videos
Metacafe: Super Bowl Shuffle
Metacafe: Amazing Saints
YouTube: Colbert on Bears (not the same ones, but still great)
YouTube: Bear down Chicago Bears
YouTube: Reggie Bush high school highlight reel
AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots at the Indianapolis Colts
While I will be definitely watching this game, I'm not going to get into a breakdown of it, seeing as how I got long winded in my discussion of the NFC game.
Let me just say this: I don't really like Colts or the Patriots. The Colts have always been too one sided of a football team for me to enjoy, and the Patriots are basically the luckiest most resilient group of players out there. Sometimes it seems impossible for them to lose. I respect both teams, and I think Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. I heard John Kincade mention on ESPN radio this morning that he wonders if the Manning legacy is too much for Peyton to conquer. Interesting argument, but I think this game will squash that ghost and Manning will lead his Colts to the Super Bowl.
Colts 31 - Patriots 24.
Videos
YouTube: Peyton Paradise: Dr H performs a stunning rap tribute to Peyton Manning, set to the tune of Coolio's Gangster's Paradise. No, I'm not kidding. Note the part where Manning is portrayed as Jesus. Yep.
Metacafe: Young Peyton Makes the Play (note the two teams highlighted: Saints and Colts...can you say destiny?
YouTube: Peyton Manning Sprint Commercial
YouTube: Tips from Tom Brady...on jump roping
YouTube: How to Beat Tom Brady
YouTube: New England Patriots, the dynasty
For a look inside the AFC Championship game, check out Don Banks article on SI.com, and the following stories:
Maligned for past playoff flops, Manning has chance to secure standing as one of game's greats, by Phil Richards for The Indianapolis Star
For Pats, it's always Brady time, by Phillip B. Wilson for The Indianapolis Star
Coaching, discipline make Pats hard to top in playoffs, by Michael Silver for SI.com
Note: by the time I finished typing up this post, the weather outside had turned to a hard, blinding snowfall.