I realize this is a "music blog" per say, but I've really got the itch to talk some baseball, in particular the National Leage Central Division race.
Being for the most part a lifelong resident of Wisconsin, aside from my two year stint in Pennsylvania for graduate school, I've gone almost my whole life without seeing the Brewers contend for the playoffs. Since putting together a magical run in 1982, the Brewers have been relegated to Major League Baseball's bottom of the barrel. However, a great farm system has finally helped produce a Brewer's team with the punch to contend for the NL Central crown.
At 57-48 after today's loss to division rival St. Louis, the Milwaukee Brewers are the surprise of the National League. A plethora of good, young talent raised in the farm system has helped propel the Crew to first place in the NL Central division, but only 2.5 games ahead of the talent-laden Chicago Cubs. After building up an 11 game lead in the division earlier in the year, the Brewers have faltered as of late, allowing the resurgent Cubbies to gain ground. As a result, many are questioning whether Milwaukee's talented youngsters have the staying power to fend off Lou's deep ballclub in Chicago. The answer? Yes.
This season is no fluke for the Milwaukee Brewers. A lineup bolstered by the addition of Triple A power-hitting prospect Ryan Braun (.348 BA, 17 HR, 46 R, 46 RBI, 9 SB) has shown this season that it can put enough bats on the ball to give the pitching and bullpen a chance 9 out 10 times. Need proof? The Brewers 141 home runs this season are tied for best in the majors with Cincinnati.
Prince Fielder is finally showing the All-Star caliber talent he is supposed to have, with 30 home runs on the season already. JJ Hardy has put together a surprisingly offensive season as well to earn All-Star honors, and outfielder Corey Hart is turning into a quality 5 category talent. There's enough talented youth on the pitching side as well with Triple A strikeout king Yovani Gallardo showing he can be effective thus far in the big leagues. Recent call up Manny Parra put together a great game today before usually dominant closer Francisco Cordero blew it for the Crew in the 9th. The two youngsters, along with a much improved Claudio Vargas and usually consistent Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano, provide the Brewers with one of the more surprisingly well-rounded pitching staffs in the NL Central. In the bullpen, Derrick Turnbow has improved on his tumultuous season from a year ago, now shining in the setup role. Villanueva has been great, acquiring 6 wins in the process. With the recent acquisition of veteran Scott Linebrink, it's only looking better from here on out for the bullpen, which has thus far held a 3.75 ERA.
The resurgent Chicago Cubs will certainly push the Brewers to the end for the NL Central crown. But how do they stack up against this year's hot Brewers? Veritas Lux Mea's position-by-position breakdown gives you the scoop.
Catcher
Brewers: Johnny Estrada, Damian Miller
Cubs: Koyie Hill, Jason Kendall
Estrada and Miller certainly do not combine to create one of the sexiest backstop duo's in the league, but thus far they've been effective. Estrada's maintained a .280 average and knocked in 36 runs, while Wisconsin native Miller has provided some occasional heroics (see the 2 HR, 7 RBI night he had July 2 against Pittsburgh) in spot duty. Regardless, they've been more effective behind the plate than the Cubs' Hill, who stepped into the starting role after Michael Barrett's departure to San Diego. Hill was hitting a measly .173, prompting the Cubs to go out and get Jason Kendall from Oakland. Kendall has had a down year and is himself only hitting .180 since joining the team. While I look for Kendall's numbers to improve as the season goes on, I don't think he's going to put up anywhere near the same numbers he did in '05-'06 in Oakland.
Edge: Brewers.
First Base
Brewers: Prince Fielder
Cubs: Derrick Lee
Brewers 1B Prince FielderI will tell you right now that Derrick Lee, at this point in his career, is a better baseball player than Prince Fielder. But for the first half of the season, Fielder outhit him. Lee will return to form in the second half of the season and should be a perennial All-Star alongside Fielder, but with Prince's magical season and Lee's lack of power this year (only 9 HR) I have to give this one to the youngster for his brilliant first half.
Edge: Brewers
Second Base
Brewers: Rickie Weeks, Tony Graffanino, Craig Counsell
Cubs: Mike Fontenot, Mark DeRosa
Weeks is certainly having a down year, hitting only .217 with 43 runs batted in. Cagey vets Graffanino and Counsell have done their part despite being fairly average ballplayers, in part by providing solid defense, infield flexibility, and big-time hits in clutch spots. Veteran DeRosa has provided decent power at times and Fontenot is young, but will develop into a quality hitter. However, with the Brewers' depth and experience at this position and Weeks' potential for upside, this one goes to the Crew.
Edge: Brewers
Shortstop
Brewers: JJ Hardy
Cubs: Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedano
JJ Hardy has put together an All-Star season for the Brewers, discovering a power swing and putting up 18 HRs, 60 RBIs and 55 runs, all career numbers. In fact, Hardy has more HR and runs than both Theriot and Cedano combined. Theriot is another young talent that will provide gold-glove worthy defense and 20 more stolen bases a year, but he doesn't touch the power Hardy has commanded this year.
Edge: Brewers
Third Base
Brewers: Ryan Braun
Cubs: Aramis Ramirez
Milwaukee rookie 3B Ryan BraunBraun is on pace to challenge for NL Rookie of the Year honors, posting a .348 BA, 17 HR, 46 R, 46 RBI, and 9 SB in only 55 games. With 12 errors on the year, Braun's only weakness thus far has been his defense.
Ramirez is one of the Big 3 bats in Lou Pinnela's ballclub alongside Alfonso Soriano and Derrick Lee. Hitting .319 with 16 HR, 65 RBI, and 43 R, Ramirez is having a pretty good year as well. There's probably not a hotter bat in the league right now than Braun's, but Ramirez has almost 20 more runs batted in than Braun. Of course, he's also played in 30 more games.
Edge: Ramirez, because of experience and defense
Outfield
Brewers: Corey Hart, Bill Hall, Kevin Mench, Geoff Jenkins
Cubs: Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Angel Pagan, Alfonso Soriano, Matt Murton
Corey Hart is putting together a career year for the Milwaukee Brewers. The 6-6 standout has a .287 BA to go along with 15 HR, 43 RBI, 51 R, and 16 SB. However, the rest of the Brewers' outfield can be labeled as lackluster. Bill Hall has put up decent numbers in somewhat limited play, but nothing close to the 35 HR and 100 runs he scored in 2006. Both Jenkins and Mench are beyond their prime, but have provided enough hits and defense to keep the Brewers in games.
Alfonso Soriano is the leader of the Cubs outfield having joined the team from Washington during the offseason. After a fairly slow start, Soriano has exploded for 16 HR, 37 RBI, 67 R, and 13 SB. However, after hitting 46 home runs in 2006 for the Nationals, his lack of power in the first half was a huge disappointment. He won't get to that number again this year, but will provide great defense and good speed and power to a Cubs outfield that is young but immensely talented.
Edge: Neutral.
Pitching
Brewers: Ben Sheets (DL), Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan
Cubs: Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Carlos Zambrano, Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis
Milwaukee Brewers' Ben SheetsBen Sheets has been his usual reliable self this year, amassing 10 wins and 90 strikeouts with a 3.39 ERA before going to the DL. Capuano has been shaky with a 5-6 record and a 4.64 ERA. His 38 walks this year make me think command has been an issue. Suppan has been serviceable at times but has a whopping 5.08 ERA and 9 losses under his belt. With a 70K/48BB ratio it seems like he's also having problems commanding the strike zone away from Miller Field, as 7 of his 9 losses have come on the road. Dave Bush is underrated and has pitched better than most assumed he would. Vargas has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers, notching a 9-2 record but giving up 17 HRs this season. Gallardo was called up from Triple A when Capuano went on the DL and responded brilliantly having allowed only 1 earned run in his past 18 innings pitched. His 2.18 ERA is best among the Milwaukee starters.
Cubs ace Carlos ZambranoFor the Cubs, Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano have combined for 24 wins. Since coming over from Toronto during the offseason, Lilly has put together an 11-4 record with a 3.46 ERA and 108 strikeouts. In fact, Lilly is one of three 100K pitchers on the staff, the others being Carlos Z and Rich Hill. Zambrano is arguably the ace of the staff and could come close to 20 wins this season. His 13 current wins put him in a tie for best in the leagues with a couple other big aces. Young Rich Hill might be one of the most talented No. 3 pitchers in all of baseball with 113 strikouts and a 3.59 ERA. He's been shaky as of late but should regain the composure he showed for the first half of the season. Marquis is not the pitcher he was in St. Louis but had a good start to the year and has 7 wins under his belt. Sean Marshall, another young talent on the staff, shows great potential and has some wicked stuff as well.
Edge: Cubs. With a 3.89 average ERA among starters and an opponent BA of .240, the Cubs' have some of the most talented pitchers in the NL Central and probably the most talented starting five in the NL. Lilly, Zambrano, and Hill (in a few years) are all ace-level talent and could hold their own as a No. 1 on any team.
Bullpen
Brewers: Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turbow, Scott Linebrink, Carlos Villanueva, Matt Wise, etc
Cubs: Ryan Dempster, Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol, Scott Eyre, etc
Cordero had been money in the bank for most of the season before blowing his last two saves, and his 32 saves are best in the league. Why he's been shaky lately I don't know, but hopefully he'll be as strong down the stretch as he has been all season. Turnbow has excelled in his change to a setup man, doing much better without the pressure of having to close out games. His opponent BA of .191 is best on the team. Linebrink's addition will help solidify a bullpen that has posted a 3.75 ERA so far this year. Linebrink should relieve a bit of pressure on Wise and Villanueva, although Villanueva has been a breath of fresh air with his 6 wins and 67 strikeouts in middle relief.
Chicago's pen is no slouch, with the underrated Ryan Dempster notching 17 saves before hitting the DL. He's healthy again, and will help solidify a bullpen manned by Howry and Marmol during his absence, both of whom pitched well. But based on their performance this season, I'll give the edge to the Brewers here.
Schedule
The Brewers close out the regular season at home for seven games with a series against the St Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres. The Cubbies will be away for their last six in Florida and in Cincinnati. Milwaukee's played much better at home than on the road, so this should help the Brewers in those games. Unfortunately, the Cubs will have easier opponents on the road in Florida and Cincinnati.
Edge: Even
Final outcome
It will be a race to the finish between the Brewers and Cubs for the NL Central crown. St. Louis will make a push at only 8 games back, but their terrible pitching will keep them from contending. The Brewers are younger and don't have quite the pitching staff that Chicago does, but it just feels like it's going to be a good year for a change come October in Milwaukee.
NL Central Champion: Milwaukee Brewers by 2 games